Heritage Health Prize

Evaluation

IMPORTANT NOTE: The information provided below is intended only to provide general guidance to participants in the Heritage Health Prize Competition and is subject to the Competition Official Rules. Any capitalized term not defined below is defined in the Competition Official Rules. Please consult the Competition Official Rules for complete details.

Entries will be judged based on the degree of accuracy of their predictions of DaysInHospital for Y4 (or if applicable Y5), carried to six (6) decimal places. An entry’s predictive accuracy will be judged by comparing (i) the predicted number of days a member will spend in the hospital reflected in the entry and (ii) the actual number of days a member spent in the hospital as reflected in the Scoring Data Set. Prediction accuracy will be evaluated based on the following metric:

Where:

  1. 1. i is a member;
  2. 2. n is the total number of members;
  3. 3. p is the predicted number of days spent in hospital for member i in the test period;
  4. 4. a is the actual number of days spent in hospital for member i in the test period.

Note: the metric is calculated using the natural log.

Entrants may submit one (1) entry during each calendar day (UTC) beginning on May 4, 2011 and ending at 06:59:59 UTC on April 3, 2013. Eligible Milestone Prize Entries judged to have the two lowest prediction scores as of the applicable Milestone Prize Deadline will win Milestone Prizes. The eligible Grand Prize Entry that the judges determine produces the lowest prediction score that passes the Accuracy Threshold as of the end of the Competition (06:59:59 UTC on April 4, 2013) will win the Grand Prize of US $3 million. The Accuracy Threshold is the accuracy of predictions required to win the Grand Prize. That maximum accuracy is 0.4.