Until recently, I've been thinking 'wow, there is a US$3M prize' for first place! However now I'm telling myself to revise my enthusiasm downwards... since it seems to me likely that no-one is going to beat the required 0.4 accuracy threshold. Hence the prize is really just US$500k. Not bad.... but not enough to retire on :(
After nearly a month of submissions, the rate of improvement is already heading towards an asymptote that isn't 0.4. The best today is 0.461113. Admittedly we are still to get some more data supplied. But realistically I don't think that we're going to be able to get down to 0.4. That target is just too hard...
Any other opinions? Personally I'd be happy to bet at 5-1 odds today that by the end of the competition no-one exceeds 0.4. Any takers? (eg, I put up $50, you put up $10)