Having only come across the competition recently, I was also surprised at the number of submissions by the teams, and had the same impression as smartersoft. On the other hand, at the end of the day, I, too want to know if I the current approach I am taking
is significantly different from my other approaches, so, yes, after making significant changes to my models, I will make a submission. And, since the results of different predictions vary so much between years 2 and 3, it helps to know which model best fits
Nevertheless, none of any team's submissions so far comes close to the desired result, and shaving a few ten-thousandths off the score every other day with decreasing returns is unlikely to succeed. With that in mind, once I have determined that a given
model has little chance of success, I scratch it and move on. Keep in mind, that other teams are using standard methods already. Also, HPN wouldn't be offering this prize if it was easily achieved. Good or bad, my approach is not just to think outside the
box, but to throw the box away. Good luck everyone.